Bitcoin plunged to $29,000 on July 24, signaling that bears are trying to seize control. It looks like the failure to hold on to the higher levels may have tempted short-term bulls to book profits and aggressive bears to initiate short positions.
Although the near term looks bearish, long-term investors remain unfazed, and they continue to hold on to their positions. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term holder supply made a new high of 14.52 million Bitcoin, “equivalent to 75% of the circulating supply.”
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
While the cryptocurrency markets have turned soft in the near term, the United States equities markets remain on strong footing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen for 10 straight days, its longest streak since 2017. However, things could change this week with a slew of key earnings reports and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on July 26. The latter could also impact the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which is on a recovery path.
Could lower levels attract buyers in Bitcoin and select altcoins? Will the strength in the U.S. equities markets limit the downside in the cryptocurrency markets? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned down from 4,578 on July 19, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the buyers are not dumping their positions as they anticipate the uptrend to continue.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,471 and the relative strength index (RSI) in the overbought territory suggest that bulls are in command. If the price turns up from 4,513 or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers.
That will enhance the prospects of a break above 4,578. The index could then rally to 4,650 and eventually to 4,800.
This positive view will be negated if the price dives below the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a fall to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,336.
U.S. Dollar Index price analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index turned up sharply on July 18 and rose back above the breakdown level of 100.82 on July 20. This suggests that the breakdown below 100.82 may have been a bear trap.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
The price has reached the 20-day EMA, which is an important level to watch out for. If the price turns down sharply from it and plunges below 99.57, the downtrend may resume. The index may then crash to 97.50.
Instead, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are back in the game. The index may then climb to the 50-day SMA (102.66) and subsequently to the downtrend line.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin bulls again pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($29,957) on July 23, but the long wick on the candlestick shows strong selling at higher levels.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The selling intensified on July 24, and the price plunged below the strong support at $29,500 that had held for the past several days. The BTC/USDT pair has descended to the 50-day SMA ($29,021), which is a crucial level to keep an eye on.
If the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the break may have been a bear trap. The pair may then rally to $31,000.
On the contrary, if the price continues lower and plunges below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the bulls have given up. The pair may then slump to $27,500 and later to $26,000.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($1,852) on July 23, and the bulls tried to propel the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,888), but the bears held their ground.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears are trying to pull and sustain the price below the 50-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair could start a deeper correction toward $1,700. Such a fall will indicate that the pair may remain stuck inside the $1,626 to $2,000 range for a while longer. The price action inside the range is likely to be random and volatile.
If the price rebounds off the 50-day SMA and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest solid buying at lower levels. That may open the gates for a possible rally to $2,000. The next trending move is likely to begin on a break above $2,000 or below $1,626.
XRP price analysis
After failing to sustain above $0.83 on July 19 and 20, XRP (XRP) has turned down toward the 20-day EMA ($0.67).
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If bulls want to keep the uptrend intact, they will have to protect the 20-day EMA with vigor. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, the XRP/USDT pair may form a range in the near term.
The boundaries of the range could be $0.66 on the downside and $0.86 on the upside. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the overhead resistance of $0.86.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are rushing to the exit. That could attract further selling, and the pair may collapse to the breakout level of $0.56.
BNB price analysis
The bulls failed to propel BNB (BNB) above the 20-day EMA ($243) in the past few days. That attracted heavy selling by the bears, who are trying to sink the price below the support of the symmetrical triangle.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If they succeed, it will suggest that the uncertainty between the bulls and the bears has resolved in favor of the sellers.
The BNB/USDT pair could then drop to the critical support at $220. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying by the bulls. If the price rebounds off $220 with strength, it will suggest that the pair may remain range bound for a while.
Another possibility is that the price bounces off the support line of the triangle. In that case, the pair may extend its stay inside the triangle for a few more days. Buyers will have to shove the price above the triangle to signal a comeback.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) has been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the 20-day EMA ($0.31).
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the buyers or the sellers. This uncertainty will tilt in favor of the bears if the price slumps below $0.30. That could sink the price to the uptrend line.
Contrarily, if buyers drive the price above $0.33, it will suggest that bulls are back in the game. The ADA/USDT pair could then rise to the July 14 intraday high of $0.38. The bears are likely to defend this level with vigor.
Related: Bitcoin whale exchange inflow share hits 1-year high — over 40%
Dogecoin price analysis
The bears tried to pull Dogecoin (DOGE) back below the breakout level of $0.07 on July 22, but the bulls held their ground.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($0.07) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. There is a minor resistance at $0.08, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
If buyers do not allow the price to skid below the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a rally to $0.10 increases. This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price declines and sustains below $0.07.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) continues to witness profit booking by short-term traders. That pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($23.73) on July 24.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls will try to arrest the downward move at $22.30. If the price rebounds off this support, the bulls will again try to clear the overhead hurdle at $27.12. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair may retest the July 14 high of $32.13.
On the other hand, if the price dives below $22.30, it will suggest that the break above $27.12 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then tumble to the 50-day SMA ($19.80). Such a move will suggest that the pair may continue to swing inside the large range between $14 and $27.12 for some more time.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon (MATIC) has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.74) for the past few days. This shows that the bulls are protecting the level, but they have failed to start a recovery. This indicates that the bears are maintaining their pressure.
MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI has descended below 50, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium could tilt in favor of the bears if the price plummets below the 50-day SMA. The MATIC/USDT pair could then slide to $0.60.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above $0.80, it will signal solid buying at lower levels. The pair may then retest the local high at $0.89. A break above this level could indicate the resumption of the uptrend.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.